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Jera Conde

What ASIC’s new retirement research really tells us about Australians

Jera Conde · Jun 30, 2026 ·

The scariest thing for most Australians approaching retirement isn’t having too little super. It’s not knowing their current financial position.

That’s one of the key takeaways from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s (ASIC) latest research. With around 2.5 million Australians set to retire over the next decade, nearly half of those surveyed aged 50 to 66 said they were worried about outliving their savings. A sobering headline, no question.

But it isn’t the anxiety statistic that tells the most important story. It’s what sits underneath it.

The number that tells the real story

Only 26% of pre-retirees demonstrated a strong understanding of retirement finances, yet 41% said they felt confident they could manage. Confidence is outrunning comprehension by fifteen percentage points.

On the other side of the ledger, 48% of Australians aged 50 to 66 are worried they will run out of money, while 32% feel they are already behind in preparing, yet only 18% have a clear retirement plan.

The picture that emerges is one of two groups: people who are confident without cause, and people who are anxious without evidence. What both groups share is the same underlying problem. They haven’t sat down and done the numbers. The confident ones are often coasting on a vague sense that things will work out. The anxious ones are catastrophising into a void. Neither group is making decisions based on their actual financial position, and both are worse off for it.

Why the gap exists

Retirement planning in Australia is genuinely complex. Modelling super drawdown, Age Pension eligibility, investment returns, inflation, healthcare costs, and longevity all at once, with uncertainty baked in throughout, is not straightforward. Most people don’t have the tools or the framework to do that, and there’s no reason they should. It’s not something Australians are taught.

ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted that many Australians feel confused and overwhelmed by the complexity of retirement planning, and that without a clear plan, uncertainty can quickly turn into anxiety.

That pattern plays out consistently in adviser practices across the country. The anxiety isn’t really about money. It’s about not knowing. And not knowing often feels like not having enough, even when that’s not the reality at all.

What “enough” actually looks like

Retirement can be more affordable than many people expect, particularly when the Age Pension is factored in.

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds Australia’s (ASFA) February 2026 figures, a comfortable retirement covering private health insurance, a reliable car, regular domestic travel, and occasional international trips costs around $54,837 a year for a single homeowner and $77,375 for a couple. That’s the benchmark for a full, active lifestyle. Not luxurious, but genuinely comfortable.

Factor in the Age Pension and the picture shifts further. As at 30 March 2026, the full pension provides $1,178.70 per fortnight for singles and $1,777 per fortnight for couples, significantly reducing how hard superannuation needs to work. Many Australians who are eligible for at least a partial pension haven’t factored it into their thinking at all.

ASFA’s lump sum figures for a comfortable retirement for homeowners, $630,000 for singles and $730,000 for couples at age 67, are calculated on the basis that super is drawn down gradually while the Age Pension fills an increasing share over time. It is not a system where retirees are entirely on their own.

The question that changes the conversation

When pre-retirees sit down with a financial adviser, the most useful starting point is rarely “how much super do you have?” It’s “what does a good week look like for you in retirement?”

It sounds soft. It isn’t. Until a person can describe their retirement, they can’t price it. And until they can price it, every number from their super balance to their pension entitlement to their investment returns is just noise.

The people who are genuinely well-prepared for retirement aren’t necessarily those with the most money. They’re the ones who have connected the dots between what they want and what they’ve got.

Research from the Financial Advice Association Australia found that 88% of advised Australians felt they had enough money for retirement, and 96% said having an adviser helped them stay confident even during periods of economic uncertainty. That confidence isn’t accidental; it comes from knowing where you stand.

What to do if you recognise yourself in this research

ASIC has responded to its findings by launching a new Retirement Hub on the Moneysmart website, offering calculators and planning tools to help Australians model their super, Age Pension eligibility, and retirement income scenarios. It’s a solid free starting point and worth exploring.

But for those within ten years of retirement who are still operating on a vague sense of where things stand, a tool alone may not be enough. What’s needed is a clear, personalised picture including income, assets, lifestyle targets, and the strategy to connect them.

With 58% of pre-retirees saying they want to learn more about superannuation and retirement, the appetite is clearly there. What’s missing for most people isn’t motivation; it’s a practical, structured conversation about their specific situation.

That conversation is one that a financial adviser can help facilitate. And for most people, it ends with considerably more clarity than they walked in with. Not because the numbers are always perfect. But because knowing, really knowing and understanding, is almost always less frightening than the alternative.

What is driving markets in 2026 and what to watch next

Jera Conde · Jun 23, 2026 ·

The major themes dominating financial markets right now are:

  • The Middle East war: Associated price increases for crude oil, natural gas, and fertiliser are a growing threat to global economic activity.
  • National self-sufficiency: Countries are prioritising national security by focusing on local supply chains for energy, minerals, and technology.
  • The “old-economy” comeback: As nations race to build data centres and secure independent energy sources, traditional industrial and energy firms are coming back into focus.
  • The AI execution phase: Investors are now rewarding companies that successfully use AI to cut costs or grow sales, rather than just the “chip makers”.
  • Structural inflation: Inflationary pressures are returning, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates and pushing bond yields higher.

Returns of major asset classes to 30 April 2026

Asset classCYTD 30 Apr 263 months6 months1 yearAnn. 3 yearAnn. 5 yearAnn. 10 year
Global shares in USD6.83.77.931.720.511.312.9
Global shares in AUD0.11.0-1.717.217.212.913.6
US shares in AUD-2.01.5-3.516.618.314.816.0
Emerging markets in AUD6.32.65.031.317.98.110.3
Australian shares0.51.2-0.910.19.78.49.3
Australian small companies-7.9-10.4-8.015.38.73.77.3
Australian listed property-9.5-7.0-11.3-0.29.26.25.9
Australian bonds-0.3-0.5-1.8-0.12.00.11.8
Global bonds (hedged AUD)0.1-0.10.02.43.1-0.11.6

Global markets

Share markets have produced unusually positive returns over the past three years. Global bonds have also been positive. However, the strengthening Australian Dollar significantly reduced returns in AUD.

Despite an overwhelming news cycle in 2026, global shares have performed well. US share prices reached new historic highs, supported by corporate profit margins hitting 15-year peaks. Since February, returns have been led by a resurgence in technology companies, following a brief period of scepticism about AI sustainability. Meanwhile, emerging markets remained strong, driven by Asian technology in Korea and Taiwan, as well as Latin American energy and commodities.

Australian markets

In Australia, the headline results mask a sharp divide between sectors. Overall, the market was subdued. Nevertheless, Energy and Materials surged 34% and 17% respectively year-to-date, with one-year returns of 58% and 46%. In contrast, Australian small companies and listed property were hit hard by rising interest rates. Small companies are currently correcting after a strong 25% return in 2025. Healthcare continues to slump.

In the fixed-income space, Australian bond returns fell below cash due to rising yields. Investment Grade Credit, however, continued to offer attractive yields.

Outlook for economies and markets

The outlook for the rest of 2026 points to strong global earnings. That said, several headwinds persist, including high sovereign debt levels, energy supply disruptions, and elevated valuations in the US and Australian markets. The US and emerging markets are the most positive. By contrast, Europe and the UK are slowing and remain highly vulnerable should the energy crisis continue.

Domestically, the Middle East war has made the Australian economy more fragile following resilient growth in 2025. Business investment is mostly technology-related, and confidence among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply. Furthermore, the spike in inflation pushed interest rates to 4.35% in May 2026, adding to cost-of-living pressures.

Overall, we remain positive on growth assets and quality credit. Even so, we emphasise active management to identify relative value in specific sectors and sub-asset classes.

Conclusion: Our preferred approach

  • Continue to be diversified by asset classes.
  • Remain flexible and incorporate active management.
  • Review currency hedging in the portfolio.
  • Bonds and high-quality credit for income and stability.
  • Seek inflation protection with exposure to listed global property and infrastructure.
  • Regular rebalancing to maintain target allocations.

Staying the course when the world gets speed wobbles

Jera Conde · Jun 16, 2026 ·

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’d be forgiven for feeling uneasy. Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainty have created a cocktail of market volatility that’s testing even experienced investors’ nerves.

March 2026 saw the ASX experience its worst monthly decline since 2022, reflecting real sensitivity to global uncertainty, rising interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risk. That kind of headline is uncomfortable. But discomfort and danger are not the same thing, and it’s important not to confuse them.

What history tells us

Volatility is not an aberration. It’s a feature of markets, not a flaw. In 2025 alone, the Australian market fell 15% on the back of US tariff headlines, only to recover to new highs just two months later. That is the nature of long-term investing: bumpy, occasionally frightening, and ultimately rewarding for those who stay the course.

Historical analysis of 124 years of Australian sharemarket data shows that while there was approximately a 20% chance of incurring a loss over any 12-month period, that probability fell to zero over any rolling eight-year period. Time, it turns out, is one of the most powerful risk management tools available to any investor.

Volatility creates opportunity

Here’s the part that rarely makes the headlines. Periods of market uncertainty are also when some of the best long-term opportunities appear. Quality assets go on sale. Investors who remain calm and systematic, particularly those with regular contribution strategies or dollar-cost averaging in place, are often buying at prices that future them will appreciate.

Investment managers with a long-term focus note that significant opportunities remain in quality companies at reasonable prices, and that disciplined long-term investing in resilient businesses remains the clearest path to lasting returns.

Morningstar’s latest Mind the Gap study found that the difference between market returns and actual investor returns was 1.2% in 2025, driven almost entirely by overtrading. The more investors traded during volatility, the less they made.

The instinct to do something when markets fall is entirely human. But in investing, the best action in uncertain times is usually thoughtful non-action. Stay invested, stay diversified, and stay focused on the long game.

Feeling uncertain about where your portfolio sits in the current environment? Time for a conversation with someone who can look at the bigger picture with you. We are here to help.

Economic update video: June 2026

Jera Conde · Jun 10, 2026 ·

 

Small changes that create big financial results

Jera Conde · Jun 10, 2026 ·

Right now, saving feels hard. That’s not a personal failing, it’s the economic reality for most Aussie households.

The average Australian has $42,246 in savings, down nearly $4,600 from the previous year. More than a quarter of Australians report having no money left over after payday. And with inflation running at 3.7% annually to February 2026, and the cash rate at 4.35%, the pressure on household budgets is very real.

But here’s what I’ve seen consistently in my practice: the people who build wealth are not necessarily the ones who earn the most. They’re the ones who act consistently, even in small ways.

Start smaller than you think you need to

The biggest mistake people make with savings is waiting until they can save a significant amount. Don’t. Whilst financial planners consistently recommend building an emergency fund of three to six months of expenses as a priority, you don’t get there all at once. You get there by starting.

Micro-savings strategies work because they remove the psychological resistance to sacrifice. Rounding up purchases to the nearest dollar, redirecting a single subscription you’ve forgotten about, or saving your next pay rise rather than spending it, none of these feels dramatic, but they compound in ways that do.

Automate everything you can

The single most effective thing you can do for your financial future is to make saving the default, not the decision. Set up an automatic transfer to a separate high-interest savings account on payday, before you see the money in your everyday account. Platforms like Pocketbook and ASIC’s MoneySmart calculators can help you track spending patterns and model the impact of small changes over time.

If you’re an employee, even a modest increase in your salary sacrifice super contribution each time you receive a pay rise costs you very little in take-home pay but adds meaningfully to your long-term position.

In today’s environment, review your fixed costs first

With national rents up 5.5% over the year to February 2026 and energy rebates having expired at the end of December 2025, the smartest budgeting move right now is to audit your recurring costs.

Compare your energy provider. Review your insurance premiums. Check whether your mortgage rate is still competitive. These are not exciting tasks, but they often yield more savings than cutting your morning coffee ever could.

Track progress without obsession

A budget that requires daily attention is one you’ll abandon. Instead, set a monthly check-in. Look at one number: Are you saving more this month than last? Progress doesn’t need to be dramatic to be real. Small, consistent gains are how snowballs form.

The environment is difficult right now. But difficult is not the same as impossible, and the habits you build in a tough economy tend to stick.

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