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Patrick Flynn

Federal Budget 2020-21 Analysis

Patrick Flynn · Oct 7, 2020 ·

In what has been billed as one of the most important budgets since the Great Depression, and the first since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic dragged Australia into its first recession in almost 30 years, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the next phase of the journey is to secure Australia’s future.

As expected, the focus is on job creation, tax cuts and targeted spending to get the economy over the COVID-19 hump.

The Treasurer said this Budget, which was delayed six months due to the pandemic, is “all about helping those who are out of a job get into a job and helping those who are in work, stay in work”.

The big picture

After coming within a whisker of balancing the budget at the end of 2019, the Treasurer revealed the budget deficit is now projected to blow out to $213.7 billion this financial year, or 11 per cent of GDP, the biggest deficit in 75 years.

With official interest rates at a record low of 0.25 per cent, the Reserve Bank has little firepower left to stimulate the economy. That puts the onus on Government spending to get the economy moving, fortunately at extremely favourable borrowing rates. And that is just as well, because debt and deficit will be with us well into the decade.

The Government forecasts the deficit will fall to $66.9 billion by 2023-24. Net debt is expected to hit $703 billion this financial year, or 36 per cent of GDP, dwarfing the $85.3 billion debt last financial year. Debt is expected to peak at $966 billion, or 44 per cent of GDP, by June 2024.

The figures are eye-watering, but the Government is determined to do what it takes to keep Australians in jobs and grow our way out of recession.

So, what does the Budget mean for you, your family and your community?

It’s all about jobs

With young people bearing the brunt of COVID-related job losses, the Government is pulling out all stops to get young people into jobs. Youth unemployment currently stands at 14.3 per cent, more than twice the overall jobless rate of 6.8 per cent.

As we transition away from the JobKeeper and JobSeeker subsidies, the Government announced more than $6 billion in new spending which it estimates will help create 450,000 jobs for young people.

“Having a job means more than earning an income,” Mr Frydenberg said.

Measures include:

  • A new JobMaker program worth $4 billion by 2022-23, under which employers who fill new jobs with young workers who are unemployed or studying will receive a hiring credit of up to $10,400 over the next year. Employers who hire someone under 29 will receive $200 a week, and $100 a week for those aged 30-35. New employees must work at least 20 hours a week to be eligible.
  • A $1.2 billion program to pay half the salary of up to 100,000 new apprentices and trainees taken on by businesses.

In recognition that the pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on women’s employment, the Budget includes the promised “Women’s economic security statement” but the size of the support package may disappoint some.

Just over $240 million has been allocated to “create more opportunities and choices for women” in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) as well as male-dominated industries and business.

Housing and infrastructure

As part of its job creation strategy, the government also announced $14 billion in new and accelerated infrastructure projects since the onset of COVID.

The projects will be in all states and territories and include major road and rail projects, smaller shovel-ready road safety projects, as well as new water infrastructure such as dams, weirs and pipelines.

The construction industry will also be supported by the first home loan deposit scheme being extended to an extra 10,000 new or newly built homes in 2020-21. This scheme allows first home owners to buy with a deposit as low as 5 per cent and the Government will guaranteeing up to 15 per cent.

Personal tax cuts

As widely tipped, the government will follow up last year’s tax cut by bringing forward stage two of its planned tax cuts and back date them to July 1 this year to give mostly low and middle-income taxpayers an immediate boost.

As the table below shows, the upper income threshold for the 19 per cent marginal tax rate will increase from $37,000 a year to $45,000 a year. The upper threshold for the 32.5 per cent tax bracket will increase from $90,000 to $120,000.

As a result, more than 11 million Australians will save between $87 and $2,745 this financial year. Couples will save up to $5,490.

Marginal tax rate*Previous taxable income thresholdsNew taxable income thresholds
0%$0-$18,200$0-$18,200
19%$18,201-$37,000$18,201-$45,000
32.5%$37,001-$90,000$45,001-$120,000
37%$90,001-$180,000$120,001-$180,000
45%More than $180,000More than $180,000
Low income tax offset (LITO)Up to $445Up to $700
Low & middle income tax offset (LMITO)Up to $1,080Up to $1,080**

*Does not include Medicare Levy of 2%
**LMITO will only be available until the end of the 2020-21 income year.

You don’t need to do anything to receive the tax cuts. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will automatically adjust the tax tables it applies to businesses and simply take less. It will also account for three months of taxes already paid from 1 July this year so workers can catch up on missed savings.

Business tax relief

In another move that will help protect jobs in the hard-hit small business sector, business owners will also get tax relief through loss carry back provisions for struggling firms. This will allow them to claim back a rebate on tax they have previously paid until they get back on their feet.

Businesses with turnover of up to $5 billion a year will be able to write off the full value of any depreciable asset they buy before June 2022.

Cash boost for retirees

Around 2.5 million pensioners will get extra help to make up for the traditional September rise in the Age Pension not going ahead this year. However, self-funded retirees may feel they have been left out.

Age pensioners and as well as people on the disability support pension, Veterans pension, Commonwealth Seniors Health Card holders and recipients of Family Tax Benefit will receive two payments of $250 from December and from March.

This is in addition to two previous payments of $750 earlier this year.

Health and aged care

After the terrible toll the pandemic has waged on aged care residents and the elderly, the Government will add 23,000 additional Home Care packages to allow senior Australians to remain in their home for as long as possible.

Funding for mental health and suicide prevention will also be increased by $5.7 billion this year, with a doubling of Medicare-funded places for psychological services.

Super funds on notice

Underperforming super funds are to be named and shamed with a new comparison tool called Your Super. This will allow super members to compare fees and returns.

All funds will be required to undergo an annual performance test from 2021 and underperforming funds will be banned from taking on new members unless they do better.

Looking ahead

As the underlying Budget assumptions are based on finding a coronavirus vaccine sometime next year, Government projections for economic growth, jobs and debt are necessarily best estimates only.

Only time will tell if Budget spending and other incentives will be enough to encourage business to invest and employ, and to prevent the economy dipping further as JobKeeper and JobSeeker temporary support payments are wound back.

Another test will be whether the Budget initiatives help those most affected by the recession, notably young people and women.

The Government has said it is prepared to consider more spending to get the economy out of recession. The Treasurer will have another opportunity to fine tune his economic strategy fairly soon, with the next federal budget due in just seven months, in May 2021.

If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures and how they might impact your finances, don’t hesitate to contact us.

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2020-21 and Federal Budget support documents.

It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

Getting retirement plans back on track

Patrick Flynn · Sep 23, 2020 ·

After a year when even the best laid plans have been put on hold due to COVID-19, people who were planning to retire soon may be having second thoughts. You may be concerned about a drop in your super balance, insecure work, or an uncertain investment outlook.

Whatever your circumstances, a financial tune-up may be required to get your retirement plans back on track. You may even find you’re in better financial shape than you feared, but you won’t know until you do your sums.

The best place to start is to think about your future income needs.

What will retirement cost?

Your retirement spending will depend on your lifestyle, if you are married or single, whether you own your home and where you want to live.

Maybe you want to holiday overseas every year while you are still physically active or buy a van and tour Australia. Do you want to eat out regularly, play golf, and lead an active social life; or are you a homebody who enjoys gardening, craftwork or pottering in the shed?

Also think about the cost of creature comforts, such as the ability to upgrade cars, computers and mobiles, buy nice clothes, enjoy good wine and pay for private health insurance.

It’s often suggested you will need around 70 per cent of your pre-retirement income to continue living in the manner to which you have become accustomed. That’s because it’s generally cheaper to live in retirement, with little or no tax to pay and (hopefully) no mortgage or rent.

Draw up a budget

To get you started, the ASFA Retirement Standard may be helpful. It provides sample budgets for different households and living standards.

As you can see in the table below, ASFA suggests singles aged 65 would need around $44,183 a year to live comfortably, while couples would need around $62,435.i Of course, comfort is different for everyone so you may wish to aim higher.

ASFA Retirement Standard

Modest lifestyleComfortable lifestyle
SingleCoupleSingleCouple
Annual income$28,220$40,719$44,183$62,435
Savings required at retirement$70,000*$70,000*$545,000$640,000

Source: ASFA, as at March 2020. Assumes home ownership.

*The fact that these figures are the same reflects the impact of receiving the Age Pension.

To put these figures in perspective, the full Age Pension is currently around $24,550 a year for singles and $37,013 for couples. As you can see, this doesn’t stretch to ASFA’s modest budget, let alone a comfortable lifestyle, especially for retirees who are paying rent or still paying off a mortgage on top of other expenses.

Then there is the ‘known unknown’ of how long you will live. Today’s 65-year-olds can expect to live to an average age of around 85 years for men and 87 for women. Half will live longer than that, many into their 90s. The challenge is to ensure your money lasts the distance.

Can I afford to retire?

Once you have a rough idea what your ideal retirement will cost, you can work out if you have enough super and other savings to fund it.

Using the ASFA benchmark for a comfortable lifestyle, say you hope to retire at age 65 on annual income of $62,000 a year until age 85. Couples would need a lump sum of $640,000 and singles would need $545,000. This assumes you earn 6 per cent a year on your investments, draw down all your capital and receive a part Age Pension.

Add up your savings and investments inside and outside super. Subtract your debts, including outstanding loans and credit card bills, to arrive at your current net savings. Then work out how much you are likely to have by the time you hope to retire if you continue your current savings strategy.

There are many online calculators to help you estimate your retirement balance, such as the MoneySmart super calculator.

Helping the kids

If you want to leave an inheritance for the kids or help them financially sooner rather than later, then you will need to factor this in. Do be aware though that there are limits to how much you can give away without affecting your Age Pension entitlements.

Under the Centrelink gifting rules, you are only permitted to give a maximum of $10,000 in one financial year and $30,000 over five financial years before the excess is counted towards your Age Pension assets and income tests.

Closing the gap

If there’s a gap between your retirement dream and your financial reality, you still have choices.

If you have the means, you could make additional super contributions up to your concessional cap of $25,000 a year. You may also be able to make after-tax contributions of up to $100,000 a year or, subject to eligibility, $300,000 in any three-year period.

You might also consider delaying retirement which has the double advantage of allowing you to accumulate more savings and reduce the number of years you need to draw on them.

These are challenging times to be embarking on your retirement journey, but a little planning now could put you back in the driver’s seat.

Get in touch if you would like to discuss your retirement strategy.

i https://www.superannuation.asn.au/resources/retirement-standard

Asking Sara: Silver linings and positioning for growth

Patrick Flynn · Sep 22, 2020 ·

The below question from Kate in Fremantle was originally asked on the Adviser Ratings site and answered by our Principal Adviser, Sara Millard.

We’ve reproduced it below for your benefit.


As a young person/mid lifer accumulating super and whose retirement is some way away… What are the positives of this market fall and how can I ensure I am positioned to benefit from the growth post COVID 19?

– Kate from Fremantle

Dear Kate,

I am happy you asked that question and have had the foresight to see that there may be opportunities to benefit from such an unprecedented event, especially for young or mid-life accumulators.

There are a couple of key positives that can occur when investment markets fall:

  1. It’s a great opportunity to be a part owner of some very reputable companies at a low cost.
  2. A falling market gives investors invaluable experience. Living through a significant market decline can provide a front-line opportunity to understand how you manage your own emotions, and potentially make more informed decisions about your wealth creation moving forward.

I always say the best way to position one’s self to benefit from the growth past a market fall is to be aware of how investment markets operate. Have a basic understanding of the types of asset classes that are available, i.e. shares, property, alternatives, infrastructure, fixed interest and cash and their correlation with each other.

Another way to benefit from growth post COVID-19 is to understand the underlying characteristics of different types of growth funds. For example, some will focus on capital growth only and others will focus on capital growth and income.

Be careful of trying to pick the market, and the right time to invest during periods of volatility. Some of the best economists who study the markets every day can get it wrong. Ensure that you have surplus cash flow available to invest and be aware of the suggested time horizons for the specific investments you are considering.

There are ways of buying into investment markets when they are volatile and leveraging the investment risk. These include:

  • Making regular contributions rather than trying to time the market with a lump sum contribution;
  • Reinvesting Income, which hen your accumulating wealth via Superannuation naturally occurs; and
  • Investing in Investments that are classified as ‘Highly Recommended’ by a reputable research house.

Kate, a key thing to be aware of is that markets move in four phases; and that understanding how each phase works and how to benefit from these different market cycles can have a huge impact on your potential success. These are:

  1. Accumulation Phase – usually occurs after the market has bottomed out, where potentially the worse is over, valuations are attractive, and investors are buying.
  2. Mark-Up Phase – usually occurs when the market has been stable for some time and the cost of the underlying investments are higher.
  3. Distribution Phase – usually occurs when sellers are dominating the market.
  4. Mark-Down Phase – usually occurs when the cycle is most painful for those who still hold positions, and their current valuation is less than what they paid for them.

A cycle can last anywhere from a number of weeks to a number of years, depending on the market in question and the time horizon the investor has.

You can read Sara’s original response at Adviser Ratings here, and if you are a client of Sara’s you can always leave a review at Adviser Ratings.

Super changes add flexibility

Patrick Flynn · Aug 4, 2020 ·

Just when you thought you had a grip on the superannuation rules, they change again. This time though, the changes are mostly positive, especially for older super members keen to top up their savings.

From 1 July 2020, changes came into effect with the potential to help retirees as well as members suffering financial hardship due to the economic impacts of COVID-19.

If you are not working you may be able to contribute to super for longer, while couples can take advantage of spouse contributions for longer. The temporary reduction in minimum pension drawdowns remains in place, as does early access to super. And if you own a business, you have a brief window of opportunity to get up to date with your employees’ super payments without penalty.

Here’s a summary of the new rules.

Work test to kick in at 67

Under changes to the work test, if you are aged 65 or 66 you can now put money into super even if you aren’t working. This gives people flexibility to make voluntary catch-up contributions for a few more years and give their retirement savings a last-minute boost.

Say you are 65 and inherit some money. You can now make a voluntary non-concessional contribution to your super account up to the annual limit of $100,000, even if you are not currently working enough hours to satisfy the work test. You can make withdrawals from this money or start a super pension.

Under the work test, which now kicks in at age 67, you must work at least 40 hours within 30 consecutive days in the financial year in which you make the contribution.

It was also proposed to allow people aged 65 and 66 at the start of the financial year to use the existing non-concessional bring forward rules. If eligible, this allows you to ‘bring forward’ up to three years’ worth of non-concessional contributions (up to $300,000) in the current financial year. Legislation must be passed before this proposal becomes effective.

Couples get a super boost

Couples also have more flexibility to grow their retirement savings later in life, thanks to recent changes to spouse contributions. As of 1 July 2020, you can contribute to your spouse’s super fund until they reach age 75, up from the previous age limit of 70.

What’s more, if your spouse (married or de facto) earns less than $37,000 you may be able to claim a tax offset of up to $540 for your contribution to their super. The offset phases out once your partner’s income reaches $40,000.

The usual non-concessional contribution limits still apply, and the receiving spouse still needs to meet the work test where applicable (outlined above).

Super pension drawdowns halved

Retirees whose superannuation has taken a hit from the COVID-19 market volatility have also been given a bit more wriggle room this financial year. The government has temporarily halved the minimum amount retirees must withdraw each financial year from their account-based super pension.

This temporary measure will help retirees who might otherwise have to sell assets at depressed prices to provide cash for their pension payments.

For example, someone aged 65 would normally be required to withdraw 5 per cent of their super pension account balance each financial year. But in 2020-21 they need only withdraw 2.5 per cent of their account balance if they wish. The minimum drawdown rate increases gradually with age, reaching 7 per cent from age 95 under the temporary rules (normally 14 per cent), as you can see in the table below. There is no maximum withdrawal rate.

Table 1: Minimum pension drawdown rates (as a percentage of your super pension account balance)

Age of beneficiaryTemporary withdrawal rate
2019-20 and 2020-21
Normal withdrawal rate
Under 652%4%
65 to 742.5%5%
75 to 793%6%
80 to 843.5%7%
85 to 894.5%9%
90 to 945.5%11%
95 and older7%14%

Source: ATO

Early release of super

Younger super fund members have not been forgotten. You can withdraw up to $10,000 from your super account this financial year if you are suffering financial hardship due to the economic impact of COVID-19. This is in addition to the $10,000 you could withdraw last financial year.

It must be stressed though, that the early withdrawal of your super should be a last resort because of the adverse impact on your retirement savings. An amount of $10,000 withdrawn early in your working life could potentially be worth many times that by the time you retire.

If, after weighing up your financial options, you wish to take advantage of this temporary measure then you need to apply by 24 September 2020.

Super guarantee amnesty for employers

If you run your own business and you have taken your eye off the ball when it comes to paying the correct amount of super to your employees, then the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) is offering a temporary amnesty to set things right.

You have until 7 September 2020 to disclose and pay any unpaid Super Guarantee (SG) amounts for your employees. These contribution shortfalls can be from any quarter from 1 July 1992 to 31 March 2018.

Under the amnesty, you will not have to pay the administration charge or Part 7 penalty (up to 200 per cent of the Superannuation Guarantee Charge). You can also claim a tax deduction for your payments.

If you would like more information about any of these changes or how to take advantage of them, give us a call.

Economic Update Video – July 2020

Patrick Flynn · Jul 7, 2020 ·

After 28 years Australia’s record economic expansion ended due to the COVID shutdowns, below is a video to assist you to stay up to date with the latest indicators.

Our economy contracted by 0.3% in the March quarter, with an estimated 8% contraction in the June quarter, confirmation that we are officially in recession.

Yet Australia is weathering the COVID storm better than most nations, with signs of building business and consumer confidence.

In the year to June, Australian shares trimmed their losses to 10.8% after a partial rebound in the last quarter. US shares rose 4.6% over the same period.

The current cash target rate of 0.25% has been left unchanged and is expected to remain at its current level for the foreseeable future.

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