Jacqueline Barton

Economic growth shows signs of slowing

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Colin Brinsen, AAP Economic and Business Correspondent from the Australian Associated Press, outlines that there are already signs that the Australian economy will slow down as a result of lockdowns caused by the highly infectious Delta variant. As a consequence, the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August 3rd board meeting indicated that the board will be prepared to take action if there is further bad news on the health front. We wanted to share that on a positive note, Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans expects that growth will resume at a solid-trend pace once our economy emerges from current lockdowns.

There are already signs the Australian economy will be slowing as a result of over half the population being in lockdown while trying to tackle the highly infectious Delta variant.

However, at this stage the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, is still predicting annual growth above 2.8 per cent – the long-term trend.

The index continued to point to a slowing economy in July, but Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects the sudden impact of virus lockdowns will become more apparent in August.

Like many economists, Mr Evans is expecting the economy to contract in the September quarter.

With the deteriorating outlook in NSW and Melbourne, Westpac has revised down its forecasts for the September quarter to a contraction of 2.6 per cent.” Mr Evans said. “We are expecting growth to resume at a solid above-trend pace once the economy emerges from current lockdowns but are mindful of the uncertainties associated with the current health situation.”

In the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August 3 board meeting released on Tuesday, they presented a similar view.

However, the minutes reiterated the board would be prepared to take action if there was further bad news on the health front, should that lead to a more significant setback for the economic recovery.

The board also repeated it will not raise the cash rate from its record low of 0.10 per cent until inflation is sustainably between two and three per cent.

For that to happen it will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently – conditions it does not expect to be met before 2024.

It forecasts wages growth – as measured by the wage price index – to increase gradually to around 2.75 per cent by the end of 2023.

The wage price index for the June quarter this year is released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and will confirm why an interest rate hike is still years away.

Economists’ forecasts centre on a 0.6 per cent rise in the June quarter.

This will lift the annual rate to 1.9 per cent from 1.5 per cent as of the March quarter and the record low 1.4 per cent set during the second half of 2020 caused by the fallout from the recession.

Wages growth has not been above three per cent since early 2013.

Economic Update Video – August 2021

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Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian and global markets over the past month.

Our August update video takes you through key economic indicators so you can understand how the Australian economy is faring as we recover from the COVID-19 induced recession of 2020.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

Investing lessons from the pandemic

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When the coronavirus pandemic hit financial markets in March 2020, almost 40 per cent was wiped off the value of shares in less than a month.i Understandably, many investors hit the panic button and switched to cash or withdrew savings from superannuation.

With the benefit of hindsight, some people may be regretting acting in haste. Although for others, accessing their super under the early release due to COVID measures was a difficult but necessary decision at the time.

As it happened, shares rebounded faster than anyone dared predict. Australian shares rose 28 per cent in the year to June 2021 while global shares rose 37 per cent. Balanced growth super funds returned 18 per cent for the year, their best performance in 24 years.ii

While every financial crisis is different, some investment rules are timeless. So, what are the lessons of the last 18 months?

Lesson #1 Ignore the noise

When markets suffer a major fall as they did last year, the sound can be deafening. From headlines screaming bloodbath, to friends comparing the fall in their super account balance and their dashed retirement hopes.

Yet as we have seen, markets and market sentiment can swing quickly. That’s because on any given day markets don’t just reflect economic fundamentals but the collective mood swings of all the buyers and sellers. In the long run though, the underlying value of investments generally outweighs short-term price fluctuations.

One of the key lessons of the past 18 months is that ignoring the noisy doomsayers and focussing on long-term investing is better for your wealth.

Lesson #2 Stay diversified

Another lesson is the importance of diversification. By spreading your money across and within asset classes you can minimise the risk of one bad investment or short-term fall in one asset class wiping out your savings.

Diversification also helps smooth out your returns in the long run. For example, in the year to June 2020, Australian shares and listed property fell sharply, but positive returns from bonds and cash acted as a buffer reducing the overall loss of balanced growth super funds to 0.5%.

The following 12 months to June 2021 shares and property bounced back strongly, taking returns of balanced growth super funds to 18 per cent. But investors who switched to cash at the depths of the market despair in March last year would have gone backwards after fees and tax.

More importantly, over the past 10 years balanced growth funds have returned 8.6 per cent per year on average after tax and investment fees. High growth funds returned 10.3 per cent per year and the most conservative funds returned 5.5 per cent per year.ii

The mix of investments you choose will depend on your age and tolerance for risk. The younger you are, the more you can afford to have in more aggressive assets that carry a higher level of risk, such as shares and property to grow your wealth over the long term. But even retirees can benefit from having some of their savings in growth assets to help replenish their nest egg even as they withdraw income.

Lesson #3 Stay the course

The Holy Grail of investing is to buy at the bottom of the market and sell when it peaks. If only it were that easy. Even the most experienced fund managers acknowledge that investors with a balanced portfolio should expect a negative return one year in every five or so.

Unfortunately, we can only ever be sure when a market has peaked or troughed after the event, by which time it’s usually too late. By switching out of shares and into cash after the market crashed in March last year, investors would have turned short-term paper losses into a real loss with the potential to put a big dent in their long-term savings.

Even if you had seen the writing on the wall in February 2020 and switched to cash, it’s unlikely you would have switched back into shares in time to catch the full benefit of the upswing that followed.

Timing the market on the way in and the way out is extremely difficult, if not impossible.

Looking ahead

Every new generation of investors has a pivotal experience where lessons are learned. For older investors, it may have been the crash of ’87, the tech wreck of the early 2000s or the global financial crisis. For younger investors and many older ones too, the coronavirus pandemic will be a defining moment in their investing journey.

Now that shares and residential property prices have rebounded strongly, investors face new challenges. That is, how to make the most of the prevailing market conditions while ignoring the FOMO (fear of missing out) crowd.

By choosing an asset allocation that aligns with your age and risk tolerance then staying the course, you can sail through the market highs and lows with your sights firmly set on your investment horizon. Of course, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make adjustments or take advantage of opportunities along the way.

We’re here to guide you through the highs and lows of investing, so give us a call if you would like to discuss your investment strategy.

i https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizfrazierpeck/2021/02/11/the-coronavirus-crash-of-2020-and-the-investing-lesson-it-taught-us/?sh=241a03a46cfc

ii https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/super-funds-post-a-stunning-gain

Economic Update Video – July 2021

· ·

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian and global markets over the past month.

Our July update video takes you through key economic indicators so you can understand how the Australian economy is faring as we recover from the COVID-19 induced recession of 2020.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

 

New Financial Year rings in some super changes

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As the new financial year gets underway, there are some big changes to superannuation that could add up to a welcome lift in your retirement savings.

Some, like the rise in the Superannuation Guarantee (SG), will happen automatically so you won’t need to lift a finger. Others, like higher contribution caps, may require some planning to get the full benefit.

Whether you are just starting your super journey or close to retirement, a member of a big super fund or your own self-managed super fund (SMSF), it pays to know what’s on offer.

Here’s a summary of the changes starting from 1 July 2021.

Increase in the Super Guarantee

If you are an employee, the amount your employer contributes to your super fund has just increased to 10 per cent of your pre-tax ordinary time earnings, up from 9.5 per cent. For higher income earners, employers are not required to pay the SG on amounts you earn above $58,920 per quarter (up from $57,090 in 2020-21).

Say you earn $100,000 a year before tax. In the 2021-22 financial year your employer is required to contribute $10,000 into your super account, up from $9,500 last financial year. For younger members especially, that could add up to a substantial increase in your retirement savings once time and compound earnings weave their magic.

The SG rate is scheduled to rise again to 10.5 per cent on 1 July 2022 and gradually increase until it reaches 12% on 1 July 2025.

Higher contributions caps

The annual limits on the amount you can contribute to super have also been lifted, for the first time in four years.

The concessional (before tax) contributions cap has increased from $25,000 a year to $27,500. These contributions include SG payments from your employer as well as any salary sacrifice arrangements you have in place and personal contributions you claim a tax deduction for.

At the same time, the cap on non-concessional (after tax) contributions has gone up from $100,000 to $110,000. This means the amount you can contribute under a bring-forward arrangement has also increased, provided you are eligible.

Under the bring-forward rule, you can put up to three years’ non-concessional contributions into your super in a single financial year. So this year, if eligible, you could potentially contribute up to $330,000 this way (3 x $110,000), up from $300,000 previously. This is a useful strategy if you receive a windfall and want to use some of it to boost your retirement savings.

More generous Total Super Balance and Transfer Balance Cap

Super remains the most tax-efficient savings vehicle in the land, but there are limits to how much you can squirrel away in super for your retirement. These limits, however, have just become a little more generous.

The Total Super Balance (TSB) threshold which determines whether you can make non-concessional (after-tax) contributions in a financial year is assessed at 30 June of the previous financial year. The TSB at which no non-concessional contributions can be made this financial year will increase to $1.7 million from $1.6 million.

Just to confuse matters, the same limit applies to the amount you can transfer from your accumulation account into a retirement phase super pension. This is known as the Transfer Balance Cap (TBC), and it has also just increased to $1.7 million from $1.6 million.

If you retired and started a super pension before July 1 this year, your TBC may be less than $1.7 million and you may not be able to take full advantage of the increased TBC. The rules are complex, so get in touch if you would like to discuss your situation.

Reduction in minimum pension drawdowns extended

In response to record low interest rates and volatile investment markets, the government has extended the temporary 50 per cent reduction in minimum pension drawdowns until 30 June 2022.

Retirees with certain super pensions and annuities are required to withdraw a minimum percentage of their account balance each year. Due to the impact of the pandemic on retiree finances, the minimum withdrawal amounts were also halved for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 financial years.

Age of retireeTemporary minimum withdrawalNormal minimum withdrawal
Under 652%4%
65 to 742.5%5%
75 to 793%6%
80 to 843.5%7%
85 to 894.5%9%
90 to 945.5%11%
95 or older7%14%

Source: ATO

But wait, there’s more

Next financial year is also shaping up as a big one for super, with most of the changes announced in the May Federal Budget expected to start on 1 July 2022.

The Budget included proposals to:

    • repeal the work test for people aged 67 to 74 who want to contribute to super
    • reduce the minimum age for making a downsizer contribution (using sale proceeds from your family home) from 65 to 60
    • abolish the $450 per month income limit for receiving the Super Guarantee
    • expand the First Home Super Saver Scheme
    • provide a two-year window to commute legacy income streams
    • allow lump sum withdrawals from the Pension Loans Scheme
  • relax SMSF residency requirements.

All these measures still need to be passed by parliament and legislated.

Time to prepare

There’s a lot for super fund members to digest. SMSF trustees in particular will need to ensure they document changes that affect any of the members in their fund. But these latest changes also present retirement planning opportunities.

Whatever your situation, if you would like to discuss how to make the most of the new rules, please get in touch.